An Annotation on the Economy of the Pandemic.*

Experts from various economic centers in Europe and the United States as well as several national analysts agree that it is necessary to flatten two curves: that of contagion and that of the economic recession. In effect, the economy must be closed to reduce contagion, but an economic policy against recession must also be implemented.

The problem is that if there is no quarantine, the contagion curve rises extremely vertical and then falls, so the number of people who need hospitalization exceeds the installed capacity. The required quarantine allows the steepening of the curve to be flattened and gives the possibility of expanding hospital capacity.

The other curve, that of the economic recession, moves the opposite way, without a mandatory quarantine, it goes up less steeply and with the forced isolation, instead it gets steeper when it goes up. This is explained because the economy must be stopped.

The point made by experts is that there must be a containment policy to flatten the epidemic curve and take fiscal measures to reduce the curve of the recession. It is about flattening the two curves. With the placement of the mandatory quarantine the first curve is flattened, the contagion curve and with measures such as money transfers the second curve is flattened, that of the economic recession.

Each country has its own characteristics, some economically developed and others in development, and therefore their capacities to flatten the aforementioned curves are different. The former has large budget items to do so, while the latter must finance their actions with debt. But also, both are affected by the timeliness of the enclosure and by the intensity of sanitary measures and their compliance.

The textbooks will include these curves as explanatory of the episode of the Coronavirus pandemic that occurred in 2.020.

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*Congratulations on the next long weekend that begins tomorrow thursday, it is a work break in quarantine.