About Investments in CDT in the Period between 2.022 and 2.025 in Colombia.
The interest rate on CDTs continues to decline as expected given the decrease in the Bank of the Republic rate. In fact, with information as of april 12 from the entity in charge of supervising financial entities, the weighted rate of banks at 90, 180 and 360 days reached 10.55%, 10.29% and 10.47% respectively.
Of the above, large banks by volume of assets granted the following levels. Bancolombia 10.13%, 10.37% and 9.93% for those same terms. Banco de Bogotá 10.96%, 10.77% and 10.63%. Davivienda 10.62%, 10.37% and 10.65%. Scotiabank 10.57%, 9.98% and 10.21%.
For their part, small banks granted these rates. Pichincha 11.02%, 11.47% and 10.79%. Serfinanza 10.85%, 11.29% and 10.25%. Banco Mundo Mujer 11.08%, 11.14% and 10.2%.
The total CDT held by banks is $271 billion, of which Bancolombia owns 60b, Davivienda 46b, BBWA 37b, Banco de Bogotá 31b and Scotiabank 15b. These banks together represent 70% of the total, that is, most of them are concentrated in 5 entities.
As, according to analysts and think tanks, at the end of the year the Banco de la República rate will have dropped to levels of 8%-10% from the current level of 12.25%, it is possible that CDT rates have also dropped to 7% or 6%. The gap between the two rates is 2%.
In the next year, in 2.025, the Banco de la República rate is expected to drop over the course of the year in movements in step with the expected decrease in inflation, which by june should be reaching the goal of 3%. The estimate for that month is that the Banco de la República rate will be 5% and the CDT rate will be between 3% and 4%. Levels that are the historical ones obtained in the last 20 years in the country, before inflation rose because of the economic rebound after the recession due to the pandemic and therefore it was necessary to raise interest rates to exercise control. and lower inflation.
In summary, the CDT had a rate boom between the years 2.022 and 2.024 with a peak in 2.023. Investors recomposed their investments since 2.022 towards these assets to collect greater profits but from next year, 2025, they will direct those investments towards more profitable assets within fixed income and variable income or through investment funds, pensions or of capital.
The number of clients and accounts with CDT and accounts reaches 1.8 million and 2.6 million respectively, which is much lower than the number of clients and accounts of other assets (from the investor's point of view) such as savings that register 69 million clients and 81 million accounts. But the CDTs are also at levels close to the current account holders, who are 2.7 million clients and 3 million accounts.
It is interesting to note that the total value of savings in banks is $289 billion, a level close to that of CDTs, which, as mentioned before, is $271b. But the checking accounts are much lower at 67b.
The investments in CDT are concentrated in few clients if compared to the number of savings clients, but the value of the investments in CDT is almost the same as the savings, that is, the total value of the CDT is also concentrated in few clients unlike the value of the savings. 1)
It is expected that clients and accounts corresponding to CDTs will register a gradual decrease, especially in the year 2.025, as investors, observing the decrease in CDT rates, recompose their portfolios towards other assets.
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1) The concentration of wealth is measured by analysts and researchers by a Gini coefficient that includes, in addition to income, land, securities and stock market values and reaches values greater than 0.7 in Colombia. The measurement of the single earth reaches a Gini of even 0.9 according to official and private studies on the subject. The Gini of income as it is known reaches 0.52 in Colombia.
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Today ( monday 29) regarding world markets, the Stock Markets behave mixed due to the wait for this week's FED meeting after the recent inflation and economic growth results different from what was expected by the markets and analysts. Europe is the same with mixed records of business activity and consumer confidence.
The price of oil falls due to the uncertainty of the negotiation of reaching a peace agreement in Israel soon. WTI is trading at 82.6 and BRENT at 88.2.
In Colombia, the Stock Market rises 0.9% and the peso shows appreciation near the end of the day to 3.872.9 compared to the TRM for today of 3.926.
