Approximation of the GDP Expected for the Fourth Quarter of 2.024 in Colombia.

The ISE economic monitoring indicator is a monthly publication that is published a month and a half after the reference month and allows us to see in an approximate way how the sectors that make up the GDP are doing, whose information is quarterly and is released two months after the end of each quarter and therefore the ISE is known before the GDP.

In effect, the recent ISE record published by the official source corresponds to the month of november and together with that of october allows us to see how the formation of the GDP is going for the fourth quarter with one month of results missing to complete this quarter.

Consequently, it is observed that in those two months, october and november, the ISE registered 3% and 0.4% respectively, that is, it started the quarter with one of the highest monthly results of the year but then fell in the second month of the quarter also to one of the lowest of the year.

The previous fall from one month to another is due to several behaviors such as the following. Agriculture, including hydrocarbons, which had grown 4.5% in october, fell to -1.7% in november, industry together with construction, which had grown 1.5% in october, also fell to -2.6% in november, and public administration went from 4.7% in october to -1.2% in november. These negative changes were partly offset by the addition of the trade effect, which grew from 5.2% to 5.8%, and financial activities and real estate activities, which maintained a similar growth in the two months.

In this way, several sectors stand out in october, but only one in november. In october, agriculture, commerce and public administration stood out, and in november, only commerce stood out.

It is convenient to visualize what may happen with the GDP of the last quarter by looking at the already known GDP corresponding to the third quarter of the year 2.024, that is, the one that covers from july to september, as a starting point. This GDP was 2% with a growth that is mainly explained by agriculture 10.7%, construction 4.1% and financial activities 4.4% and falls in mining and hydrocarbons -7.1% and industry -1.3%.

With this present result of the third quarter in GDP, when observing the ISE of the month of october which is the first month of the last quarter it is observed that agriculture, by growing 4.5%, continues to be a driving sector in GDP growth as it was in the third quarter in the calculation of the GDP but everything changes in the second month of the last quarter of the year when in november agriculture falls -1.7%. This last fall translates into a downward movement in that month in the GDP result that will affect the fourth quarter. Effects that will be reinforced by the fall observed in industry together with construction in the month of november in relation to the month of october when they went from 1.5% to -2.6% and also by the drop in public administration. Trade is not enough to stop the decline in GDP caused by other sectors.

With the above, the GDP result of 2% for the third quarter is likely not to be surpassed by the result that will occur in the fourth quarter according to the known results of the ISE for october and november, but rather to be lower.

The economic forecasts of most analysts and researchers indicate that the GDP for 2.024 will be 1.9%, which exceeds the 0.6% obtained for the previous year 2.023, and for the year 2.025 they expect a higher result between 2.5% and 2.9%.