Notes About First Quarter Economic Growth in Colombia.

The GDP for the first quarter grew 0.7% annually, higher than the markets estimate of 0.3%. Result where, as expected, industry and commerce fell and financial activities and hydrocarbon mining also fell; but these movements were offset by growth in agriculture, public administration, artistic activities and electricity, which allowed that final positive result of 0.7%.

In a little more detail, the performance by sectors was as follows. The sectors that grew the most in that first quarter were agriculture 5.5%, public administration 5.3%, artistic activities 5.2% and electricity 4.5%. For their part, those that decreased are industry -5.9%, financial and insurance activities -3%, mining and hydrocarbons -1.5% and commerce -0.8%. Construction registered growth of 0.7%.

It should be noted that the participation of each of the sectors mentioned above within the GDP is as follows. Of a total GDP of 100%, commerce participates with 17%, public administration with 15.2%, industry 11%, real estate activities 9.2%, professional and scientific activities 6.7%, agriculture 6.3%, financial activities and insurance 5.3%, construction 4.5%, artistic and recreational activities 4.2%, mining and hydrocarbons 4%, information and communications 3.1%, electricity 3.1% and taxes net of subsidies 10.4%.

At the same time, it is of interest to look at the movements within some sectors, as presented below, both in those that grow and in those that fall.

In the sectors with growth, in agriculture, permanent and temporary crops stood out 9.3%, the drop in coffee -3.6% and the increase in livestock 3.3%. In public administration it is divided into three, public administration itself 9.4%, education 1.1% and health care activities 4.7%. In artistic activities they are those of entertainment and recreation 4.9% and those of individual households as employers 7.1%. In electricity, the supply stands out with 6% and the distribution of water and wastewater treatment with 0.6%.

In the sectors with falls, the following occurs. In industry there are food products -5.3%, textiles and clothing -13%, wood and products -3.2%, oil refining, gasoline and derivatives -4.5%, basic metallurgical products -7.3% and furniture and others -8.3%. In mining and hydrocarbons it includes coal extraction -0.2%, oil extraction 1.5% and extraction of other metals -16.3%. In trade, wholesale and retail trade 0.6%, transportation and storage -1.5% and accommodation and food services -3.4%.

In the construction sector two components, building construction -2.5% and road construction 7.6%.

From all the above, some observations are the following. Of agriculture, industry, commerce and construction considered as the real sectors of the economy, which represent 39% of GDP, growth in agriculture and to a lesser extent construction stands out, but industry and commerce remain negative. The public policy of economic reactivation along with greater investments from the private sector are required for the recovery of these two sectors.

Each sector, both those that grew and those that fell, requires strengthening some of its subsectors, such as: agriculture coffee; mining the extraction of metals; trade promote wholesale and retail trade and accommodation with food; construction housing and industry all subsectors.

The estimate for the full year 2.024 is 1.3% GDP growth and for next year 2.5%, still below the country's potential growth of 3%.