Notes on Current Colombian Economy.
January Inflation
In the month of january, according to the official source of information, inflation reached 8.35% annually, lower than expected and after having registered 9.28% in december. In that month of january, the main explanation continues to be the increase in transportation, which is gasoline, which has had a planned increase and, in that month, it rose 13.22% annually, while food continues to decline and only increased 2.96% in the annual variation.
The previous result means that by income levels of the population, the high incomes had an inflation of 8.91% and the poor had an inflation of 7.15%. But when looking at a horizon of the last 5 years, it is observed that since december 2019, the inflation of the poor was above and for more than three years that of high incomes, mainly due to food prices and it remained that way until the month of may 2.023 when the inflation of high incomes began to exceed that of the poor and has remained that way to date. This was explained by the growth induced by the economic authorities in the price of gasoline and by the decrease in the price of food.
Regarding inflation by city, those that exceed the national figure of 8.35% are mainly Valledupar 10.77%, Monteria 9.86% and Medellín 9.32% and those that are below are mainly Villavicencio 6.37%, Popayan 6.76% and Ibague 7.03%. Bogotá registers 8.17% lower than the national total.
Also at the South American level, Colombia is the third country after Argentina and Venezuela with the highest inflation and surpasses that of Mexico, Peru, Chile and Brazil.
Population with Informal Work
In the quarter october to December 2.023, according to the official source, these informal workers reached 55.5% of the total working population. A percentage that shows that informality is a labor problem that the country must solve. But it is even more necessary to observe that between the urban population and the rural population the informality gap is widening. In fact, in the 13 main cities of the country informality is 41.5% and in rural areas it is 83.6%.
By cities, informality compared to the total of 55.5% of the country, is a major problem in Sincelejo 68.1%, Valledupar 64.7%, Monteria 62.8%, including cities such as Santa Marta 62.3% and Barranquilla 57.4%. On the other hand, the cities with the best performance are Manizales and Bogotá with 32.6%, followed by Medellín 38.4% and Tunja 40.5%. It is highlighted that informality in Bogotá is not as much of a problem as in other cities in the country.
Regarding informality by size of the companies where the Colombian population is working, it is observed that in the microenterprise there are 84.2% of informal workers, in the small company there are 21.2% of the workers and in the medium and large company only one. 6.1% and 2.8%.
The creation of formal jobs by the private sector with public policy incentives should be concentrated in the cities mentioned above as those with the greatest informality and especially in the rural sector and should be medium and large companies, not microenterprises.
CDT interests
At the end of the previous year, the weighted interest rates of the banks according to the information from the entity in charge of supervision, recorded the following percentages. At 90 days 12.2%, at 180 days 12.42% and at 360 days 12.26%. With information as of february 9 of this year, these rates decreased as follows: at 90 days 11.17%, at 180 days 11.1% and at 360 days 11.47%.
The large banks, based on the amount of assets, paid as follows on february 9: Bancolombia 11.63%, 10.99% and 10.48% at the same terms stated above. Banco de Bogotá 10.9%, 11.23% and 10.83%. Davivienda 11.27%, 11.31% and 12.47%.
Small banks like Pichincha 12.09%, 12.59% and 12.32%. Banco Serfinanza 12.38%, 12.84% and 12.53%.
As is known, large banks have less interest payments for reasons of lower financial risk and because small banks must attract more clients through attractive rates.
Bank Profits
As of november, Bancolombia profits stand out at 5.2 billion pesos, followed by Banco de Bogotá with 1 billion (b), followed by Citibank with 0.7 b, agrarian bank 0.6 b and Banco de Occidente with 0.4 b. There are banks with loss records such as Popular -0.4 b, Scotiabank -0.3 b and Falabella -0.2 b. Davivienda stands out, obtaining profits of 0.04 b after several months in the red. Also, Pichincha with losses -0.1 b and it should be noted that commercial financing companies such as Tuya -0.2 b and Rappipay -0.02 b.
