Regarding Colombia's Return to the Fiscal Rule in 2.028.

The fiscal deficit projections prepared by official sources this June for the coming years estimate that the fiscal deficit for this year will be -7.1% higher than the -5% allowed by the fiscal rule. However, this differential with the fiscal rule will be temporary as it will gradually close, and by 2.028 it will even out, falling to -3.1% for both calculations, amid growth in total revenues for the Central National Government from 17% to 18.7% and total expenditures falling from 24.2% to 21.8%. Meanwhile, the Central National Government's net debt would fall from 61.3% to 63.4%.

Also considering the trend for 2.028, official sources consider the following performance of the country's economy between 2.025 and 2.028. GDP growth from 2.7% to 3.2%. A depreciation of the dollar's Representative Market Rate from 4.265 to 4.594, a drop in the price of oil from 67.2 to 64.9 dollars per barrel, and a slight increase in oil production from 764 to 773 thousand barrels.

They also assume a drop in inflation from 4.5% to 3% (in fact, it would be within the 2%-4% target range starting in 2.026), and the average domestic interest rate from 10.2% to 9.6%.

As mentioned before, the fiscal deficit deviates from the fiscal rule in 2.025 and returns to it in 2.028 (during the next presidential administration). However, in the same projections prepared a year ago, that is, in june 2.024, the fiscal deficit for 2.024 was -5.6% and for 2025, -5.1% (declining). The results showed something different: the deficit for 2.024 was -6.7%, higher than expected, and at the same time, the deficit expected for 2.025 was not downward but upward, at -7.1%. This performance implies, as mentioned before, a departure from the fiscal rule not only for 2.025 but also for 2.026 and 2.027, and only until 2.028 would the two coincide again.

The reasons for the temporary departure from the fiscal rule, according to official sources, are the following:

Inflexible spending growth by law and without equivalent sources of financing. Protecting economic growth, as measured by GDP, from severe adjustments that hinder employment and economic activity.

Make concrete commitments to return to a path of fiscal sustainability by 2.028. This is an exceptional tool for defining a responsible path of fiscal adjustment. This includes implementing a tax reform to generate revenue and greater efficiency by creating a mission to guide its distribution.

With all of the above, international risk rating agencies, in their annual evaluation, study and determine whether or not to modify the country's rating. They have stated, preliminary, that they view these changes in fiscal deficit targets with great reservations, which could lead to a downgrade.