Some Observations on Colombian Economic Growth in 2024.

In the results according to the official source of the fourth quarter of the year 2.024 where the GDP registered an annual growth of 2.3%, the agricultural sector stands out with 6.5%, public administration with 4%, artistic activities with 5.5% and commerce with 4.4%. In this quarter the sectors that fell were mining and hydrocarbons with -5.9%, financial and insurance activities -1.1% and information and communications -0.6%. Other sectors such as industry registered 0.3% and construction 0.5%.

As mentioned, the agricultural sector grew 6.5%, explained by coffee crops 33%, agricultural crops 4%, livestock 6.6% and by falls in forestry and wood extraction -11.9% and fishing -7.3%. Within agricultural crops, coffee grew by 34.5%, rice by 18%, cocoa beans by 43.9% and sugar cane by 31%, and fruits fell by -5.6% and nuts by -1.9%. Others such as flowers by 3.2%.

It was also mentioned that mining and hydrocarbon activity fell by -5.9%, explained by the decreases in coal extraction -13.5%, and oil and gas extraction -3.3%. Within these activities there are decreases in oil -2.9%, in natural gas -11.7%, platinum minerals -39.9% and precious stones -34% partially offset by increases in silver minerals -12.6%, minerals for the chemical industry -9.7% and salt -5%.

In the quarters prior to the fourth, GDP growth was below the latter, reaching values ​​of 2.1%, 2.1% and 0.6%, considering the order from the third to the first, but in all of them the agricultural sector stands out above the others with growth in that order of 10.4%, 10.3% and 5.3%. Also, in all quarters the mining and hydrocarbons sectors fall with records of -6.9%, -5.3% and -2.5%; but the public administration sector grows with values ​​of 2.5%, 4.9% and 5.4%.

On the other hand, industry falls -1.4%, -1.5% and -5.7% and commerce behaves mixed 1.3%, 0.1% and -0.8% and construction show volatility with 4.3%, 2.3% and 0.7%.

Other observations with the above are the following. The GDP for the year 2.024 was 1.7% and the quarter with the highest growth was the fourth with 2.3% and the lowest was the first with 0.6%. The industry continues with falls that occurred in all quarters and only the last was positive with 0.3%, a low record. Mining and hydrocarbons in all quarters show falls explained by coal, oil and gas. Trade maintains the first quarters with low growth and rebounds in the fourth with 4.4%.

Regarding public administration and artistic activities, they were growing during all quarters, thus contributing to the growth of the GDP.

In summary for the full year 2.024, of the real sectors of the economy only agriculture grows with 8.1%, while. industry falls -2.1%, construction and trade register values ​​between 1% and 2% and mining and hydrocarbons fall -5.2%. Other sectors considered not real do grow, such as public administration with 4.2% and artistic activities with 8.1%. All of which explains the GDP of 1.7% for that year.

For the year 2.025, the forecasts of analysts and think tanks revolve around 2.6% in the GDP since a greater activity is expected in depressed sectors such as industry, construction and commerce because in another sector it is uncertain, this is the case of mining and hydrocarbons. That result is still lower than the potential GDP of the country, which is 3%, and also the required GDP of 5%, a level that would allow the country, especially if it persists for several years, to raise economic and social development.